Every category here is built on something: a framework, a CMS, a language version. Those have lifespans, and a category built on a fading one fades with it.
The signs, roughly in order
- Releases slow down, then become security-only
- The community's questions move elsewhere
- Hosting companies stop offering one-click installs
- Job listings for it dry up
By the time you notice the last one, buyers noticed the first three.
What happens to sales
Not a collapse. A long fade. Existing installations still need things, so demand persists for years, but new projects stop starting and the pool of buyers slowly shrinks. Prices in the category drift down as sellers compete for what is left.
The opportunity inside it
The fade is slow enough that a well-maintained item can do well while competitors give up first. Being the last actively updated option in a shrinking category is a real position, and often a profitable one.
What to do a year early
Start the next item on whatever the audience is moving to, while the current one is still earning. The worst version of this is discovering the problem when income has already gone and there is no runway to build a replacement.
What not to do
Do not port a dying item to a new platform as your first move. The buyers are different, the expectations are different, and a straight port usually competes badly against items designed for the new place.
